2017년 8월 26일 토요일

In Bloomberg, the probability of a US interest rate hike in December, which was reflected in the federal funds rate futures market, was 42.1 percent.

Janet Jellen, the chairman of the Federal Reserve System, is unusually silent at the Jackson Hole Symposium, raising doubts over the possibility of further hikes in US benchmark interest rates throughout the year.

In the futures market, the possibility of further rate hikes fell to one-third of the year, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) commissioners began to voice their concerns.


Federal Reserve Chairman Yellan attends Hearing Finance Committee


The Federal Reserve's interest rate futures market, which is expected to rise to 37 percent in December, will likely see a rate hike this year, according to Yelton's speaker at Jackson Hole, according to Foreign and Chinese Commodity Exchanges (CME)

That's down from 44 percent, just before Yellan's speech.

In Bloomberg, the probability of a US interest rate hike in December, which was reflected in the federal funds rate futures market, was 42.1 percent.

Only 12.0% of FOMCs will be raised immediately next month, and the possibility of an increase in November was 17.5%.

The value of the dollar also declined in the foreign exchange market.

The dollar index (DXY), which was based on the dollar's value against the six major currencies on Tuesday, closed at 92.52, down 0.8% from the previous day.

The dollar fell to 92.42, the lowest level in a year and three months since May last year.

The value of the dollar is usually strong when the US benchmark interest rate rises.





The Fed raised its interest rate four times in June this year after it raised its first interest rate in about nine years in December 2015.

In particular, six FOMC commissioners were expected to raise the interest rate by 1.25% to 1.5% this year, and it was expected to rise three times a year.

The Fed has already raised interest rates in March and June this year, and it has been observed that it is not too much to raise three times this year.

However, the outlook is that the Fed is not going to raise interest rates until the end of the year.

At the FOMC meeting last month, disagreements over the timing of the rate hike were revealed. Some commission members were negative about the hike in the rate hike due to the inflation rate being below the target.

In a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Yellan's chairman broke the market forecast and poured oil without disclosing any fundamental opinion on the asset shrinking schedule or the rate hike during the year.





In a speech of about 10 pages, the direction of monetary policy as well as inflation, interest rate, and asset purchase were not mentioned once.

The market interpreted this silence as suggesting a freeze of interest rates.

Some FOMC commissioners recently commented on the interest rate freeze.

"The Federal Reserve should cut back on assets sooner or later," said Robert Kaplan, a federal spokesman. "We want to be patient with tightening."

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in an interview with CNBC at the Jackson Hole that "the job market is brisk, but inflation is below the target, it is a mystery," and the moderate rate of inflation indicates that the Fed is patient.